Why is it prudent for BJP to approach 2014 as Semifinals – Election Strategy

SHARE:

2014 election will be fought in the backdrop of an unprecedented anti-incumbency against the corrupt rule and monumental economic mismanagement of Sonia Gandhi led UPA. Congress is all set to lose elections but BJP’s win is not a foregone conclusion yet, even if Narendra Modi gets anointed as PM candidate immediately.

Sonia Gandhi is betting that even a decimated Congress would corner 120-130 seats and would play the kingmaker in the like event of BJP falling short of 180. This hope is not entirely misplaced as it is widely believed that under Modi’s leadership, BJP would find it hard to attract allies. Sonia hopes to install in that scenario a Chandra Shekhar kind of Govt like Rajiv Gandhi did in 1991 in backdrop of looming economic crisis.


The economic situation is expected to be worsened in the coming year with the scorched earth (from military strategy which involves destroying anything that might be useful to the enemy while withdrawing from an area) strategy that Sonia Gandhi has adopted by implementing Food Security Bill and Land Acquisition Bill, leaving no elbow room for the next Govt. Like in 1991, Congress can then pull the plug whenever it wants to and conveniently go back to electorate in 12-24 months by pinning the blame for all governance failure on the new lame duck Govt. Whether this unfolds as per Sonia’s script or not is yet to be seen, but let’s come to BJP and Modi for the moment.

There is overwhelming evidence under Modi, BJP is set to gain critical vote share, which the party has been continuously losing over the last one decade. While this will translate to increased seats in states like UP, Bihar, MP, Gujarat, Rakasthan, Punjab etc., BJP cannot hope to covert these votes in seats in states like Odisha, West Bengal, Assam or even Andhra without a pre-poll alliance because of our First Past The Post (FPTP) system . While post poll alliances can help BJP form Govt, it can increase its seat tally in hitherto out of bound states only by getting into a pre-poll alliance and seat sharing with regional parties.

You get pre-poll allies on cold electoral calculations and not for a secular image or a statesman persona. If this wasn’t the case, Vajpayee wouldn’t have lost BJD. Once BJP’s vote-share dropped in states like Odisha, Andhra etc., the allies dumped the party as BJP was no more a useful vehicle for them to ride to the power or retain it. Of course on the alibi of secularism.

If BJP can get get a critical mass of voters (15%-20%) in each of the states where anti-Congress vote is fragmented, the allies would start getting hurt because of BJP’s gain (BJD in Odisha; AGP in Assam; INLD in Haryana; JVM in Jharkhand and TDP in Seemandhra). Even in states like West Bengal, where Congress is not one of the pole, BJP would hurt Mamata and Left would gain. Even if BJP doesn’t win very many seats in these states because of FPTP system, it would make the regional parties sit up, take notice and queue up to BJP for an alliance and seat sharing on BJP’s terms in the next elections. And under Modi, BJP is very capable and likely to do this. Moreover, this would not be happening for the first time. This has happened earlier between 1996 and 1998, when BJP polled almost 20 percent votes in states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

So for 2014, BJP has two strategic choices,

1) Focus only on ripe states like UP and Bihar to maximize seats while ignoring hitherto unpenetrated or out of bound states like West Bengal, Odisha etc., and thereby maximize seats and chance of forming the Govt in 2014

2) Focus on whole of India, including the statistically important states of UP and Bihar, maximizing votes hare as the most important strategic goal for 2014, riding on Modi’s popularity.

Of course there is also a possibility of BJP getting 200 plus seats in any of the scenario and BJP forming a stable Govt in 2014, but if the prediction is for BJP to home in between 160 to 180 seats, then BJP would do better by going into 2014 polls with strategic goal of maximizing vote-share.

Sonia’s strategy would then be turned on its head as Modi would make a 1996 out of 2014 rather then letting Sonia make a 1991 of it.

Written by Prakash Sharma >>

Why is it prudent for BJP to approach 2014 as Semifinals – Election Strategy
Name

1965 War,3,66A,2,Aam Aadmi,1,AAP,37,AAP Rift,4,AAPtard,2,Abhishek Manu Singhvi,1,ABP News,1,ABVP,1,Acche Din,3,Achhe Din,2,Acid Attacks,1,Activism,3,Adarsh Liberal,5,Aditi Restaurant,1,Aditya Chaturvedi,5,Advertorial,1,Afghanistan,3,Africa,1,Afzal Guru,1,Agriculture,2,AIADMK,1,AIB Roast,1,Ajmal Kasab,1,Akshay Bhatt,1,Akshay Marathe,4,Akshay Thakre,1,Al Qaeda,2,Alcohol,1,Algeria,1,Alka Gurha,1,Allen George,2,Ambani,1,Amit Shah,2,Amrit Hallan,4,Amrita Rai,1,Analysis,21,Angola,1,Animal Rights,2,Animal Welfare Board of India,1,Aniruddh Chakraborty,1,Anjali Damania,4,Anjana Bhartia,1,Ankit Lal,1,Ankur Baruah,1,Anna Hazare,2,APJ Abdul Kalam,1,App,1,Apsara Iyengar,1,Arab Spring,1,Archived,110,Argentina,1,Argument,32,Arjun Kapoor,1,Arnab Goswami,5,Arpan Mukherjee Das,2,Arpita Biswas,1,Article Review,1,Arun Jaitley,1,Arundhati Roy,1,Arvind Kejriwal,42,Arvind Passey,1,ASEAN,3,Asha Dwarkanath,1,Asha Mirjie,1,Ashutosh,1,Ashutosh Gowarrikar,1,Asia,1,Assam,2,Atal Bihari Vajpayee,1,Atheism,1,AURA,1,Australia,1,Automobile Industry,1,Ayodhya,1,Ayush Verma,1,Babri Masji Demolition,2,Bajrang Dal,1,Balochistan,2,Bangladesh,2,Banking,1,Banned Books,1,Barkha Dutt,1,Beant Singh,1,Beef,5,Beef Ban,3,Beijing,3,Bestiality,1,Bhagat Singh,2,Bhagwad Gita,2,Bhakts,1,Bihar,3,Bizarre,1,BJP,35,Black Money,1,Bodoland,1,Bodos,1,Bollywood,5,Book Review,2,BR Ambedkar,2,Brain Drain,1,Brazil,1,Breaking Bad,1,Bribery,2,BRICS,1,BRP Bhaskar,1,Brundi,1,BSP,1,Buddhism,1,Burhan Wani,1,Burma,1,Business,1,CAG,2,Capital Punishment,1,Capitalism,1,Caste System,7,CBI,2,CBSE,1,CCP,1,CGA,1,Chanakya,1,Chandrajith Bhaskar,1,Charlie Hebdo,3,Chennai,1,Chennai Express,1,Child Abuse,2,Child Rights,1,China,14,Christianity,5,Christians,2,CIA,1,CIC,1,Citylights,1,Civic Sense,3,Civil Liberties,7,Civil Rights,1,Click Bait,1,CNN-IBN,2,Coal Scam,1,ColorsTV,1,Comedy Nights,1,Comics,12,Commentary,37,Communal,10,Communal Harmony,2,Communism,7,Congress,28,Consent,1,Constipation,1,Constitution,7,Construction,1,Contract Labor,1,Controversy,3,Copyright Infringement,1,Corruption,21,Cow,4,Cows,2,CPM,1,Cricket,1,Crime,10,Criminal Candidates,2,Crorepati Candidates,1,Culture,12,Cut to the chase,1,CV Raman,1,Dadri,4,Dalit,3,Daud Ibrahim,1,Death Sentence,1,Debate,2,Decentralisation,1,Deepa Mehta,1,Deepika Padukone,2,Defence,5,Dehradun,1,Delhi,24,Delhi Gangrape,2,Delhi Police,2,Delhi University,2,Democracy,8,Development,7,Digital India,1,Digvijay Singh,3,Dileep Padgaonkar,1,Diplomacy,3,Discipline,1,Discrimination,4,Diversity,4,Divorce Act,1,DMK,1,Documents,1,Domestic Violence,1,Dr Bijoy Bagchi,6,Dr Brook Robinson,1,Dr Munish Kumar Raizada,1,Dr Saumya Ritesh,3,Dr Shelly Dsouza,2,Dr Sukant Khurana,3,Draupadi,1,DRDO,1,Drugs,1,DTC,1,DTPH,1,Earthquake,3,Economy,16,Education,5,Egypt,1,Ekta Rawat,1,Elections,14,English Vinglish,1,Entertainment,5,Environment,3,Equality,6,Ethiopia,1,Europe,1,Explained,1,Exposed,15,Facebook,1,Facts,1,Family,1,Fan Fiction,1,Farmers,7,Favorites,10,FDI,1,Featured,7,Feminism,12,Film Review,3,Finance,1,Focus,6,Food Security Bill,2,Foreign Policy,32,FP,13,France,5,Francois Gautier,1,Freedom,3,Freedom of Speech,4,Friedrich Hayek,1,Fringe,3,Front Page,29,Frontpage,4,Fundamental Rights,1,Gandhi Jayanti,1,Gandhian,1,Gandhis,3,Ganga,1,Gaurav Kumar,1,Gauri Mailekhi,1,Gautam Joshi,1,Gay Rights,5,GDP,2,Geeta,1,Geetika Suicide Case,1,Get Ahead,2,Ghar Vapsi,1,Google,1,Gopal Kanda,1,Gorkhaland,1,Governance,3,Greg JS,1,Guidelines,1,Gujarat,5,Gujarat Riots,5,Gulf,2,Gurmehar Kaur,2,Hadith,2,Hafiz Sayeed,5,Harish Salve,1,Harit Pradesh,1,Harsh Pratap,2,Harshvardhan,1,Hartosh Singh Bal,1,Haryana,2,Hasee Toh Phasee,1,Hate Speech,1,Health,4,Heart Disease,1,Hema Malini,1,Hemant Dubey,4,Highlight,6,Himadrish Suwan,22,Hindi Media,2,Hindu Fringe,5,Hinduism,12,Hindus,12,Hindutva,14,History,11,Homophobia,1,Homosexuality,3,Honor Killing,1,Housing,1,HUJI,1,Human Resource,1,Human Rights,4,Humor,3,Hunger,1,Hurriyat,5,Hyderabad,1,IAC,2,IAEA,1,Ideas,3,Imperialism,1,Incest,1,Independence Day,1,Indian Air Force,1,Indian Army,5,Indian Freedom Movement,2,Indian Media,11,Indian Men,1,Indian Mujaheedin,1,Indian Muslims,1,Indian Navy,3,Indian Ocean,3,Indian Parents,1,Indian Penal Code,1,Indian Police,4,Indian Women,8,Indians,4,IndiaTV,1,Indira Gandhi,1,Indo-China War,1,Indo-Iran,1,Indo-Pacific Region,1,Indo-Pak,7,Indus,1,Industry,1,Infrastructure,3,Inside Voices,1,Insider,4,Intelligence,1,Internet.org,1,IOR,3,IPL,1,Iran,2,Iraq,1,Ishaan Mohan Bagga,43,Ishrat Jahan,1,ISI,3,ISIS,6,Islam,21,Islamic Fundamentalists,4,Islamophobia,2,Israel,2,Issues,8,IT,1,IT Act,1,J&K,7,Jai Dehadrai,1,Jains,1,Jammu,1,Jana Hitwadi,1,Japan,4,Jaswant Singh,1,Jayasankar Ambadi,1,JDU,3,Jihad,4,Jiten Ram Manjhi,1,Jitendra Singh,1,JNU,4,Journalism,4,JP Sundharam,13,JuD,1,Judaism,1,Judges,2,Judiciary,7,Justice,2,Justice Katju,2,Kabul,1,Kamla Nehru Hospital,1,Kandhar,1,Kanu Agrawal,1,Kapil Sharma,1,Kapil Sibal,1,Kapila Hingorani,1,Karan Johar,1,Karan Thapar,1,Karan Tiwari,1,Karavali,1,Kargil War,1,Kartik Dora,1,Kashinath Pandit,6,Kashmir,20,Kashmir Issue,13,Kashmiri Pandits,3,Kashmiris,2,Kerala,2,Kerala Bhavan,1,Keshav Iyengar,2,Khirki Extension,2,Khushwant Singh,1,Kiran Batni,1,Kiran Bedi,2,Kishtwar,1,Kissing,1,KKHH,1,Konkan,1,Koran,5,Kosal,1,Koshika Kejriwal,1,Kothari Brothers,1,KP Nayar,1,Kulbhushan Jadhav,2,Kumar Shyam,1,Kumar Vishwas,1,Kunwar Pranav Singh,1,Kuwait,1,Lalu Prasad,1,Land Acquisition Bill,5,Landslides,1,Language,1,Lavanya Viswanathan,3,Law,13,Law Enforcement,1,Law Ministry,1,Learning English,1,Left Liberals,5,LeT,1,Letters,1,LGBT,5,Liberals,5,Lifehacks,1,Lifestyle,2,Lila Inter-actions,2,LK Advani,1,Lokesh Saxena,1,Lokpal,1,Lokpal Bill,2,Lord Buddha,1,Lord Krishna,1,Lord Ram,1,Love Jihad,1,Madhur Chadha,1,Mahabharat,2,Maharashtra,4,Mahatma Gandhi,3,Mahesh Sharma,1,Make in India,1,Mallika Sarabhai,1,Malnutrition,1,Mani Shankar Aiyyar,2,Manifesto,1,Manish Paul,12,Manish Sisodia,2,Manjhi,1,Manmohan Singh,3,Manohar Lal Khattar,1,Manu,1,Manufacturing,1,Manusmriti,1,Marathwada,1,Maritime,3,Mark Zuckerberg,1,Marriage Act,3,Mayank Gandhi,5,Mayur Jain,1,MCD,2,McDonald,1,MEA,1,Mecca,1,Media,27,Media Review,1,Medical Negligence,1,Meera Bhaynder,1,Mehbooba Mufti,3,Meme,4,Men's Rights,3,Middle-east,2,Migrants,1,Mika Singh,1,Milan Kumar,7,Minorities,1,Misandry,1,Misogyny,8,MMS,1,MNS,1,Moarlity,1,Mohan Bhagwat,2,Mona Singh,1,Morality,9,Mother Teresa,1,Mother Tongue,1,MPs,1,MRA,1,MSG Movie,1,Mulayam Singh,3,Mumbai,4,Municipality,2,Muslim Women,2,Muslims,18,My Story,4,Myanmar,1,Mysore,1,Mythology,2,Nandita Das,1,Nani Palkhivala,1,Narendra Modi,45,Narmada,1,National Security,7,Nationalism,1,Natural Disaster,4,Nature,1,Navbharat Times,1,Navjot Singh Siddhu,1,Nawaz Sharif,3,Naxalism,2,Naxalites,2,NCP,1,NDA,1,NDTV,2,Neha Taneja,1,Nehru,1,Nepal,1,Net Neutrality,1,NGOs,1,NIA,1,Nido Tania,1,Nigeria,2,Nirbhaya,3,Nirmal Baba,1,Nitish Kumar,2,Nobel Prize,1,Non-violence,1,North Korea,2,North-East India,2,Nuclear Bomb,3,Nuclear Power,1,Objectification,1,Oil,5,OLX,1,Olympics,1,On Social Media,1,On TV,2,ONGC,1,Open Letter,17,Opinion,11,Owaisi,1,P Chidambaram,1,Paan,1,Paan Singh Tomar,1,Pakistan,30,Pakistan Army,2,Pakistanis,1,Pappu,1,Parenting,1,Parliament Attack,1,Parsis,2,Partition,1,Passion Crimes,1,PDA,1,PDP,4,Pedophilia,1,Personality,2,Peshawar,1,Petrol,1,Philippines,1,Philosophy,1,PIL,3,POK,2,Police,2,Policy,18,Policy Watch,9,Political,6,Politics,44,Pollution,1,Polyandry,1,Polygamy,1,Poorvanchal,1,Populism,1,Pornography,3,Poverty,8,Prakash Gowda,5,Prakash Sharma,7,Prannoy Roy,1,Prashant Bhushan,11,Pre Poll Survey,1,Pritish Nandy,1,Priyanka Gandhi,1,Prophet Mohammad,2,Psecularism,7,Public Safety,1,Punjab,1,Punjabis,1,Quotes,1,Racism,1,Raghav Gakhar,2,Rahul Gandhi,14,Rahul Sharma,1,Rahul Singh,1,Rajaram Balajee,1,Rajat Sharma,1,Rajdeep Sardesai,1,Rajguru,1,Rakhi Sawant,1,Ram Mandir,1,Ramayan,1,Ramjas College,1,Ranbir Kapoor,1,Ranveer Singh,1,Rape,18,Rashamohan Singh,1,Ravi Kulkarni,2,Ravi Srivastava,1,Ravish Kumar,1,RAW,1,Real Estate,4,Recall,2,Reforms,2,Regional Cancer Center,1,Relationships,1,Reliance,1,Religion,14,Religious Conversion,3,Renaissance,1,Republic,6,Republic Day,1,Research,3,Reservation,3,Review,5,Richa Paul,1,Right Wing,3,Riots,3,Road Rage,1,Road Safety,3,Roads,1,Robert Vadra,1,Rohit Aggarwal,1,Rohit Nigam,1,Rohit Shetty,1,Rohith Vemula,1,RSS,9,RTI,6,Rural,6,Russia,8,S Ravi,1,Sagarika Ghose,1,Sahajanya Balaganesh,2,Sakshi Maharaj,1,Salil Desai,1,Salman Khan,1,Samajwadi Party,3,Sameer Khan,1,Sangeet Som,1,Sanitation,2,Sanjay Joshi,1,Sanjeev Kumar,1,Satire,22,Saudi Arabia,3,Saurashtra,1,Schedule Caste,4,Science,1,Section 377,4,Secularism,10,Sedition,1,Seemandhra,1,Selfie,1,Sensationalism,1,Separatist,9,Sex Ratio,1,Sex Tape,1,Sex-Ed,1,Sexist,10,Sexual Abuse,4,Sexual Harassment,4,Shabana Azmi,1,Shabnam Latiwala,1,Shahrukh Khan,1,Shamim Zakaria,6,Shana Sood,2,Shashi Tharoor,1,Shashwati Goswami,1,Shastras,1,Shefali Vaidya,2,Sheila Dikshit,1,Shias,1,Shimla Accord,1,Shirish Asthana,2,Shiv Sena,2,Shoma Chaudhury,1,Short Takes,1,Shorts,2,Shruti Seth,1,Shweta Gurjar,1,Siddharth Rathod,1,Sidebar,12,Sikh Riots,1,Sikhs,1,Sleazy Reporting,1,Smart Cities,1,Smita Mukerji,1,Snadeal,1,Snoop Gate,1,Social Media,2,Social Responsibility,1,Socialism,3,Societal,12,Society,30,Soft Drinks,1,Somnath Bharti,4,Somu Kumar,1,Sonia Gandhi,5,Sourabh Jyoti Sharma,18,South Africa,1,South Asia,3,South China Sea,2,South Korea,1,South-Indians,1,Soviet Union,1,SP,1,Speech Excerpts,1,Spirituality,1,Spitters,1,Sports,1,SRCC,1,Sreesanth,1,Students,1,Study Abroad,1,Subramanian Swamy,1,Sudheendra Kulkarni,1,Sufis,1,Sukhdev,1,Sumanth G Rao,1,Sumnesh Salodkar,1,Sunanda Pushkar,1,Supreme Court,8,Surya Solanki,2,Sushant Taing,1,Sushma Swaraj,3,Swachh Bharat Abhiyan,1,Swami Vivekananda,1,Swaraj,3,Syria,1,Taiwan,1,Tapas Mohanty,3,Tarun Tejpal,1,Tathagat Khandelwal,3,Taxation,1,Technology,1,Tehelka,1,Telangana,1,Terrorism,26,Thane,1,The Economist,1,The Hindus,1,The Telegraph,1,Third Front,1,Thoughts,8,Tibet,2,Tiger Memon,1,Times Group,1,Times Now,4,Times of India,2,Tina Jindal,1,Traffic Rules,1,Transgender,1,Trending,226,Trends,1,Trina Nileena Banerjee,1,Trolls,1,Twitter,1,Ugly Truth,2,UK,2,UN,1,Unauthorised Colonies,1,Uniform Civil Code,2,UP,1,UPA,9,US,2,USA,7,Uttar Pradesh,5,Uttarakhand,2,V Jaganmohan,1,Vansh Saluja,1,Varun Tangri,1,Ved Pratap Vaidik,1,Ved Pratap Vedik,1,Vedanta,1,VHP,2,Vidya Subrahmaniam,1,Vidyut Kale,5,Vietnam,1,Vijay Goel,1,Vineeta Tiwari,1,Vir Das,1,Virat Kohli,2,Vishesh Kashyap,4,Vitthal Radadiya,1,Vladimir Putin,1,Vote Bank,1,Voter,1,VVIPs,2,Wahhabism,3,War,2,Water,1,Weapons,5,Wendy Doniger,1,Women,14,Women Empowerment,13,Women Safety,12,World,3,World War II,1,WTO,1,Xi Jinping,1,Yakub Memon,2,Yogendra Yadav,10,Yogi Adityanath,1,Zahoor Ahmed Wani,1,Zakir Naik,1,Zimbabwe,1,
ltr
item
Indian Exponent: Why is it prudent for BJP to approach 2014 as Semifinals – Election Strategy
Why is it prudent for BJP to approach 2014 as Semifinals – Election Strategy
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5k2VFRh-zFw/VRzqfT7SJ4I/AAAAAAAABYc/hLTHdyZiMV8/s1600/Narendra-Modi-and-Rajnath-Singh.jpg
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5k2VFRh-zFw/VRzqfT7SJ4I/AAAAAAAABYc/hLTHdyZiMV8/s72-c/Narendra-Modi-and-Rajnath-Singh.jpg
Indian Exponent
http://www.indianexponent.com/2013/09/why-is-it-prudent-for-bjp-to-approach-2014-as-semifinals.html
http://www.indianexponent.com/
http://www.indianexponent.com/
http://www.indianexponent.com/2013/09/why-is-it-prudent-for-bjp-to-approach-2014-as-semifinals.html
true
2092170621401459056
UTF-8
Loaded All Posts Not found any posts VIEW ALL Readmore Reply Cancel reply Delete By Home PAGES POSTS View All RECOMMENDED FOR YOU LABEL ARCHIVE SEARCH ALL POSTS Not found any post match with your request Back Home Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat January February March April May June July August September October November December Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec just now 1 minute ago $$1$$ minutes ago 1 hour ago $$1$$ hours ago Yesterday $$1$$ days ago $$1$$ weeks ago more than 5 weeks ago Followers Follow THIS CONTENT IS PREMIUM Please share to unlock Copy All Code Select All Code All codes were copied to your clipboard Can not copy the codes / texts, please press [CTRL]+[C] (or CMD+C with Mac) to copy