How can India sheild itself from unstable Middle-east

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Middle-East (ME), a term coined by the US Naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan in 1902 to denote the region between Arabia and India, comprises roughly about 15 oil rich countries that constitute India’s extended “strategic” neighbourhood. It is “Strategic”, mainly because of the overwhelming influences that this energy rich region commands in the formulation of India’s “Look West” foreign policy in cultivating mutually beneficial ties towards the West Asian nations. However, the region has witnessed turbulence for several decades, there was, perhaps surprisingly, considerable domestic stability within individual countries mainly due to the relatively unchallengeable control that the ‘dynastic or one upmanship regimes’ exercised over their populations, otherwise, divided by bloody sectarian Shia-Sunni feuds.

ISIS / ISIL terror group soldiers have occupied major cities of Iraq in a very short time, indicating that middle-east will remain unstable for a long time to come.

Nonetheless, there happened an unprecedented popular upsurge against these ‘dynastic’ or ‘one man’ regimes in many Middle-East countries in recent years, leading to regime changes in certain cases. This seemingly ‘revolutionary’ phenomenon that swept the turbulent region since 2011 onwards was termed as ‘great democratic awakening’ or as ‘Arab Spring’ by many Western liberals. But also as some thinkers pointed it out then as mere short-lived “irrational exuberance” logically basing their presumptions on the inbuilt ‘anti-democratic’ nature of Quranic Islam itself, verily it has turned out to be a ‘great nightmare’ as ‘Islamic Winter’ with Islamic Jihadists like Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Hezbollah et al aided by “Sunni” Al-Qaeda, “Wahaabi” Saudi Arabia and “Shia” Iran virtually became the new ruling masters.

It’s a bitter fact that real democracy can neither be imposed nor can ever take place in Middle-East/Islamic Arab world until these very anti-democratic forces are totally uprooted by people of Middle-East nations themselves; which, rationally speaking is a sheer impossibility. How can the severely suppressed Middle-East citizenry, themselves divided on blood spurting sectarian cleavages can stand united to oust these sworn enemies of democracy? With these Islamists being ‘un-powered’ in Middle-East nations like Egypt and Syria in by its Army strongman and Assad regime, many heaved sighs of great relief that at least basic human rights of non-Muslim minorities, immigrant working communities (mostly Indians) will be protected. As they said lesser evils have to be welcomed sometimes to save us from being devoured by greater evils. At present scenario it is the ‘best worst option’ given the divisive nature of Middle-East societies and its culture itself which only mirror the reality of Islamic inter-sect intolerance, deep distrusts amongst them coupled with decades of corrupt ‘non-governance’ of only loot and squander.

Today, the Middle-East region is exposed to a new set of challenges, threats and an uncertain future with ruling Saudi Wahhabi regime funded jihadi forces like Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Levant (ISIS/ISIL), a predominantly Sunni Arab militia letting loose a reign of terror to overthrow ‘pro-Shia’ ‘un-Islamic’ regimes in Iraq and Syria, thus threatening the very regional stability of Middle-East itself.

India cannot but be affected by these sudden turn of events with ‘Shia Iran’ rushing to aid the Shia majority Iraq and Syrian regimes, even by joining hands with its ‘Great Satan’ – the US. If ISIS/ISIL came to control the oil refineries and oil wells there, then energy supplies from Iraq to Kuwait stretch will be stopped. Kuwait might be its next target. India, being a net energy importer from Middle-East region, thus, will be badly hit.

India is heavily dependent on Middle-East for fueling its over all energy demands with 5 out of 7 top crude oil supplying nations belong to this region. Currently, after Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait are the three biggest oil exporters to India. The current crises in the Middle-East region can negatively affect India’s ‘geo-strategic’ energy interests. In fact, due to burgeoning current account deficit (CAD) in energy imports on which India spent $155 billions in 2012 and with steep prices of Saudi oil, Iran and Iraq were chosen as the two oil rich Middle-East nations whom India has been paying in Rupees, instead of Dollars to tide over imminent Forex crunches.

If energy supplies from Iraq and Iran, as net exporters, got choked than global oil prices will shoot up which will ultimately have cascading effects on over all Fuelonomics of Indian economy. Domestic prices of petroleum products will also have to be increased which, in turn, will increase the food prices leading to more inflation – the biggest challenge facing the new Modi Government with a bad Monsoon on sight. Its promised ‘acche din’ (good days) faces the risk of turning into ‘burrey din’ (bad days) as the outgoing scams ridden UPA regime has left the coffers almost empty.

So, what are possible solutions to tide over the ‘strategic implications’ brought by the ongoing Middle-East crises? Or more positively, what India must ‘re-learn’ to ‘un-learn’ its traditional diplomacy with the volatile Middle-East nations, turning crises into opportunities? First and foremost priority must be to not just lessen but to completely negate India’s current energy heavy dependency on volatile Middle-East nations, as long term goal. How? India must scout for other more reliable alternative sources of energy (like African or Latin American oil exporting ‘stabilized nations’) as well as tapping renewable energy sources like nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, geo-thermal energy, hydro electricity etc to propel its current sluggish economy to fast paced growth track.

Currently, India is highly dependent on Middle East for meeting her crude oil demands.

The new government in Delhi can take the first step towards ‘zero dependence’ on fast oil depleting ‘ME/Gulf or Islamic Arab world’ region by building ‘Strategic Petroleum Reserves’ (SPRs), taking cue from US who built such SPRs in the aftermath of OPEC led oil embargo on it in ’73; capable of meeting India’s energy requirements for at least 3-6 months during such contingencies like war or like the ongoing Middle-East crises.

India is superrich in solar, wind; Thorium generated nuclear power and hydro power. The Government must harness these sources in true earnest as well as think innovative by use of bio-diesel, investing in more R&D to use hydrogen as ‘non-oil fuel’ of the future automobiles, more e-automobiles in order to turn its current heavy fuel dependency on Middle-East nations into ‘pure independency’. These tasks will take time for fruition but let’s light a candle of hope, instead of cursing the darkness of endless hopelessness like the one brought in by ongoing Middle-East crises. Famous for his ‘out of box’ thinking, PM Modi must lead the nation he heads into right directions, as 125cr Indians have reposed their faith in the ‘Modi Sarkar’ in recent elections.

Meanwhile, India must not jump in the ‘troubled waters’ of ongoing Middle-East crises but just wait and watch as both US and Iran will be jointly fighting to stop the onwards march of ISIS/ISIL forces into hearts of Iraq and Syria.

Crises like this one are good for India to re-think, re-learn and revamp its ‘straitjacketed’ foreign cum strategic policy formulations. After all crises, whether occur in our lives or life of great nation like India we should look at them positively to re-think, re-learn and doubly profit by. Agree?

Written by Sourabh Jyoti Sharma >>

Sourabh is a pursuing PhD research scholar working on ‘Chinese Navy in Indian Ocean and Strategic Implications for India”, at Department of Political Science, Delhi University.
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Indian Exponent: How can India sheild itself from unstable Middle-east
How can India sheild itself from unstable Middle-east
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